As the author of the board has pointed out elsewhere there are several blogs/authors that provide context for the overriding assessment of peak oil:
- Tim Morgan @ https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
- Gail Teerverburg: https://ourfiniteworld.com/
- John Michael Greer : https://www.ecosophia.net/and dreamwidth (more occult focused, but also interesting)
- Ugo Bardi https://senecaeffect.substack.com Love his systems dynamics work and the concept of the 'Seneca effect'
-I'd include to a lesser extent Peak Prosperity and Wealthion/ now something else
The issue I find with all of in relation to investing is timing, alongside framing ROI and ‘capital’ outside its standard definitions, e.g. social capital, growing your own veg/producing your own meat that allow for better health prospects.
The timing aspect, and alongside this, the rate of change, are so critical to making financial decisions. Long-term discretionary spending is going to continually slammed as most countries now have some form of ‘cost of living crisis’ ongoing. Personally I have only invested in what I see as fundamentals that I understand: rural land, property, gold, and to a much less extent, companies around oil, food, and logistics. The former have run their course in my local and are starting to look precarious (even rural land which is odd, however making it productive and profitable is extremely difficult without government subsidies).
It would great to hear others ideas/thoughts on framing, timing, and the balance between traditional investing and any non-standard ways of thinking about investing.
Assesmnet criteria and framing in the context of Peak Oil
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kevinfitton
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Thu Apr 18, 2024 6:56 pm
Re: Assesmnet criteria and framing in the context of Peak Oil
As the future is uncertain, the only guide is the past.
Look to how human nature dealt with similar circumstances, as we have not changed either our nature or our abilities over the last few hundred years.
( similar circumstances are when energy and most of the resultant tech goes away again )
The most important realisation is that the inherent rentier activity of investing your capital into something and expecting a return will also disappear.
For example, If you own land, you will not benefit unless you know how to use it to extract some value from it. Either you become a farmer, like the 99% were, or a landlord, but how can and will you justify being paid a rent ? Likely, the Rule of Law will be weakened or broken, so how will you, personally, enforce it ? Can you actually personally enforce your claim ?
A stash of precious metals, supplies, tools etc will mitigate any transition, but you had better be able to be productive, or you will just be living on your fat reserves, so to speak.
Perhaps investing in a gong concern now would be the best strategy, learning the skills and building the relationships which will continue through the turmoil, but this is very dicey and unrewarding under the present conditions.
We deffo underestimate the intelligence and resilience of our ancestors, who we mock and ignore for no-more understanding and thriving in today's world, anymore than we could survive and thrive in theirs, minus our tech baubles and toys.
Look to how human nature dealt with similar circumstances, as we have not changed either our nature or our abilities over the last few hundred years.
( similar circumstances are when energy and most of the resultant tech goes away again )
The most important realisation is that the inherent rentier activity of investing your capital into something and expecting a return will also disappear.
For example, If you own land, you will not benefit unless you know how to use it to extract some value from it. Either you become a farmer, like the 99% were, or a landlord, but how can and will you justify being paid a rent ? Likely, the Rule of Law will be weakened or broken, so how will you, personally, enforce it ? Can you actually personally enforce your claim ?
A stash of precious metals, supplies, tools etc will mitigate any transition, but you had better be able to be productive, or you will just be living on your fat reserves, so to speak.
Perhaps investing in a gong concern now would be the best strategy, learning the skills and building the relationships which will continue through the turmoil, but this is very dicey and unrewarding under the present conditions.
We deffo underestimate the intelligence and resilience of our ancestors, who we mock and ignore for no-more understanding and thriving in today's world, anymore than we could survive and thrive in theirs, minus our tech baubles and toys.